Almeida was caught in the huge stage 4 crash at the Tour de Pologne, finished the stage heavily delayed, then did not start the following day. UAE later confirmed there were no serious injuries or long-term consequences.

That sounds reassuring, but preparation for a Grand Tour is built around timing. With the Vuelta starting on 22 August, losing even a few days of training and recovery this close to the race is far from ideal.

So is “no fractures” enough to call this good news, or has the damage already been done to his preparation?

Pogačar is obviously capable of winning races without needing to be protected every kilometre.

But Almeida was named as one of the key riders in UAE’s Vuelta squad alongside Jay Vine and Pavel Sivakov, and his value is obvious: he can climb deep into mountain stages, protect a leader late in races and force rival teams to respect another genuine GC-quality rider.

If Almeida is at full strength, UAE can use him aggressively.

If he arrives undercooked, that changes the options around Pogačar.

Would Pogačar still be the overwhelming favourite without Almeida at 100%? Almost certainly. But would the race become easier for his rivals?

There is another side.

Almeida has already lost his chance to chase the Tour de Pologne overall, but that also means fewer hard race days before Spain.

If the injuries are genuinely minor, a forced period of recovery could leave him fresher by the time the Vuelta reaches its decisive mountains.

The problem is that there is a very fine line between fresh and underprepared.

Could this interruption ultimately help, or is two weeks simply too little time to rebuild properly?

This is where UAE’s strength becomes ridiculous.

Pogačar will not be isolated even if Almeida is below his best. UAE have already named a strong supporting group, and the team has enough climbing depth to control most mountain stages.

That is why this crash probably does not turn the Vuelta upside down.

But Grand Tours are rarely won in perfect conditions. One weakened domestique can matter when attacks start flying in the third week.

Is UAE’s depth enough to make Almeida almost replaceable, or is he the one teammate Pogačar would rather not lose?

UAE’s Vuelta plan has taken a hit — but not a major one.

Almeida avoiding fractures is the most important part, and there is still time for him to recover before Spain.

But this close to a Grand Tour, any disruption matters.

Pogačar probably remains the favourite regardless. The real question is whether Almeida arrives as a genuine second card for UAE, or simply as another rider trying to recover his form.