Why does this Vuelta matter so much?
The Vuelta is where Pogačar first announced himself as a Grand Tour contender.
In 2019, aged just 20, he won three stages, claimed the white jersey and finished third overall behind Primož Roglič and Alejandro Valverde. He has not returned since.
He has since won both the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France. Victory in Spain would complete the career Grand Tour set, something only eight men have achieved.
Is anyone strong enough to challenge him?
Pogačar will begin as the clear favourite, but this is not an empty field.
Roglič is a four-time Vuelta winner and has built his season around chasing a record fifth title. Enric Mas, Felix Gall and Mattias Skjelmose are also expected to challenge.
Pogačar will also have an exceptionally strong team around him, including João Almeida, Jay Vine and Pavel Sivakov. UAE are not going to Spain simply to test the waters.
Could fatigue be the real opponent?
The biggest threat may not come from another rider.
The Vuelta starts on 22 August, less than a month after Pogačar completed another demanding Tour de France. It will be only the second season of his career in which he has contested two Grand Tours.
The route includes seven summit finishes, two individual time trials and almost 3,300 kilometres of racing. The hardest mountain stages are concentrated late enough to punish anyone who has not fully recovered.
Is the race already his to lose?
On ability alone, it is difficult to argue against him.
Pogačar has the strongest recent Grand Tour record, a team capable of controlling the race and a route containing repeated opportunities for him to create time.
But the Vuelta rarely follows a completely predictable script. Heat, aggressive racing and accumulated fatigue could make the final week far less comfortable than the opening stages suggest.
Chainline Verdict
The Vuelta is Pogačar’s to lose—but it is not already won.
Roglič’s experience and freshness make him a genuine threat, while the severe final week could expose any fatigue left behind by the Tour.
Yet if Pogačar arrives mentally fresh and close to his best physical level, the rest may struggle to find a weakness.
The final Grand Tour missing from his career is now directly in front of him.